TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN ISLAND COUNTRIES earth's surface, this being a serious consequence of greenhouse gas emissions. Global warming is often used as a synonym for climate change which is wrong because climate change can also cause cooling(Olufemi Adedeji, 2014)8. This intentional or unintentional manipulation of the term referring to the conditions of global warming can create confusion within the tourism sector given that weather conditions remain one of the essential points in tourist demand. Chart 1 below shows an illustration from two charts taken from two journal articles, the first being Global Temperature Change(James Hansen, 2006)9and the second Global Surface Temperature Change (J.Hansen, 2010)10. This graph shows the evolution between 1880 and 2020 of the global land-ocean temperature index with the annual average temperature in blue and the smoothed curve in red over a five-year period. It is noted from Chart 1 that this is a trend towards an increase since 1960 when this index fell slightly and then rose sharply. The forecasts which will be studied in a second chapter show a continuity in the increase. Scientists responsible for advising organizations with solutions propose limiting this increase to the 2 degree rise already possible in 2050 even if all efforts are made. Analyzing this graph, on the other hand, it turns out that highs and lows have been reached several times during this period of 1880 and 2020. For example, if the average temperature represented an anomaly of -0.1 degrees in 1880, it had fallen to reach -0.3 ten years later, to rise around 1890 and go down again to -0.4 in 1910. This went back to 0.1 degrees in 1940 to mark the beginning of global warming. This graph also shows a much more intense and rapid frequency of increases compared to previous evolutions from 1940. A modeling study (Al, 2015)11shows that the year 1940 marked the presence of the first signs 8Olufemi Adedeji, Okocha Reuben, Olufemi Olatoye. “Global Climate Change”. Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection [online], 2014, N.2, 114-122. Available at <http://www.scirp.org/journal/gep http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/gep.2014.22016> (accessed 10.11.2019). 9James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea and Martin MedinaElizade “Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America” [online], 2006 Vol. 103, No. 39 p. 14288-14293. Available at <https://scihub.tw/10.1073/pnas.0606291103> (accessed 11.11.2019). 10J. Hansen,1 R. Ruedy,1 M. Sato,1 and K “GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE”. 2010. Available at <https://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345> (accessed 2019-11-11). 11Andrew et al, “The timing of anthropogenic emergence in simulated climate extremes” [online], 2015. Available at <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/17489326/10/9/094015/pdf > (consulted on 11.11.2019).
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