A NEW ADMINISTRATIVE LAW FOR A NEW TOURISM: NOW OR NEVER 1 Alejandro CORRAL SASTRE Professor of Administrative Law University CEU-San Pablo of Madrid 1.- INTRODUCTION. According to economic estimates, the consequences of the pandemic in Spain have been particularly negative. Even worse than initially expected . Nor have 2 the forecasts immediately after confnement been fulflled, which has led many public administrations to adopt policies aimed at increasing the number of visitors and tourists, so as to compensate for the negative statistics, but without taking into account other circumstances. It should be borne in mind that these forecasts are made on the assumption that the restrictions on activity would be lifted in the last quarters of 2021, so that the fall in GDP was more intense and the expected recovery started later, given that the restrictions have been maintained and even increased in the autumn, winter and the following spring, despite the fact that economic activity has not come to a complete standstill. In the latter part of 2021, uncertainty remained or even increased as, despite the high number of people vaccinated and immunized by the disease itself, cases continued to increase. In the summer of 2022, when these lines are being written, cases are still increasing, especially after the relaxation of certain measures such as the use of masks or the requirement of vaccinations for travel between certain countries. The autonomous communities have opted to allow major tourist events to be held (San Fermín, major concerts in Madrid, the April Fair in Seville, etc.), without taking much care to require health measures to prevent the spread of the virus. I understand that these decisions beneft certain tourist sectors, there is no This work has been carried out within the framework of Project PID2020-120373RB-I00 on 1 DIGITAL IDENTITY, FUNDAMENTAL RIGHTS AND NEURORIGHTS, Ministry of Science and Innovation. State Plan for Scientifc and Technical Research and Innovation. Spanish Government European Economic Forecast, Summer 2020, Institutional Paper 132 | July 2020, p., 22. 2 "Thus, according to the European Commission's forecast for this year 2020 and early 2021, and at the expense of what is set out in the report on the economy for autumn 2020 and 2021, "The economic impact of confnement in the frst half of 2020 is likely to be worse than expected in the spring forecast. This will not be fully ofset by the expected rebound in the second half of 2020 as most of the activity restrictions are removed. As a result, annual GDP growth in 2020 is now forecast at nearly -11%, about 1½ pps. lower than projected in the spring. Activity should continue to recover during the frst half of 2021 and then gradually moderate in the second half. This, together with a positive carryover from the last quarters of 2020, would bring annual GDP growth to around 7% in 2021 (virtually unchanged from the spring), leaving output volume in 2021 about 4½% below its 2019 level." 1
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