Tourism and climate change in island countries Mohamed Kayal1 1. Definition of climate change. 1.1 Climate change. 1.2 Global warming. 2. Climate change indicators. 2.1 Climate indicator: high greenhouse gas emissions. 2.2 Climate indicator: temperature anomalies. 3. Assessments of climate change predictions. 3.1 Evolution of precipitation. 3.2 Sea level rise. 4. Climate change and the distribution of tourist flows in the world. 4.1 The very high vulnerability of international tourism to exogenous shocks (COVID-19). 4.2 The questioning of the tourism development model due to climate change. 5. Climate change and the questioning of the tourist advantage. 5.1 The climate and the evolution of tourism comparative advantage. 5.2 The climate and the evolution of the tourist absolute advantage. 6. Climate and the evolution of tourist advantage in countries with an arid climate. 7. Climate and the Evolution of Tourism Advantage in Island Countries. Conclusion, Recommendations for action. This article is devoted to the current measurement of climate change and its trends. First, a definition will bring historical and current details to the phenomenon of climate change. The indicators of this phenomenon are not limited to climatic information but also cover an economic aspect which will be analyzed through the Gross International Product and job creation. Predictions of climate change are evaluated in terms of several effects. These are rising sea levels, changing rainfall and warming oceans (MacCracken, 2009)2. These forecasts will be studied by taking into account two scenarios: the first being the status quo scenario, and the second will impose a limitation of the increase in the average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Keywords: Climate change; tourism; insular; COP29; comparative advantage; specialization. DOI 10.60559/ijtthl2024-005 1 Sorbonne University Abu Dhabi. 2MacCracken, MC “The Increasing Pace of Climate Change. Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment” [online], 2009, available at <doi:10.1080/10485230909509197>, (accessed 19.05.2020).
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