TOURISM AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN ISLAND COUNTRIES 2030(GUZMAN, 2019)35. The rise in mean sea level is considered to be a rapid and continuous phenomenon. A study by the Department of Geography and Environment at the University of Waterloo in Canada showed that 30% of seaside resorts would partially or completely disappear for just one meter more rise in mean sea level in the Caribbean(Scott, 2012)36. The damage that tourist countries will face will be high in terms of logistics, infrastructure and human capital. 4. CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF TOURIST FLOWS IN THE WORLD The main changes in the short and medium term relate to the increased vulnerability of international tourism to exogenous shocks. This was the case in the 2020/2022 period in relation to the Covid19 pandemic which affected all regions of the world. This extreme vulnerability must be taken into consideration in the management of the effects of climate change which is both general worldwide and also more accentuated in certain countries, particularly for island countries and arid or desert countries. 4.1 The very high vulnerability of international tourism to exogenous shocks (Covid19) The Covid19 period has shown that international tourism can almost disappear in all regions of the world in a few days. This interruption in tourist, hotel and restaurant activity lasted much longer from the point of view of international attendance than domestic activity, which gradually recovered away from borders. As a result, international tourism is much more vulnerable than domestic tourism, regardless of the regions of the world, as shown in the table below, which indicates a fall in international tourist arrivals in the world of -72.2% in 2020 then again by -34.3% in 2021. 35 Charles Guzman "The level of the oceans could rise by 25 meters by 2030", [online] available at <https://up-magazine.info/index.php/planete/climat/28078-le-level-des - oceans-could-rise-25-meters-des-2030/> (accessed on 28.11.2019) 36 Scott, D., Simpson, MC, & Sim, R “The vulnerability of Caribbean coastal tourism to scenarios of climate change related sea level rise.” Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 2012, [online] Volume 6, 883–898. Available at <doi:10.1080/09669582.2012.699063> (accessed 2019-11-28)
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